There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates much like one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. 789bet of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.