There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps which might be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. 78WINGO on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points less than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.