There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. hi880 will tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. A great deal of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.