There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. A lot of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should new 88 placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will assist you in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.