"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put the same amount on the second game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the second game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" https://12bet.center/ and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."